Polymarket. Kalshi. Truth Social?
It looks like Donald Trump’s social network is getting into the prediction market space. On Monday, Truth Social’s parent company, Trump Media and Technology Group Corp., announced that the social media platform would be the first such site to launch its own prediction market.
The prediction market will be called “Truth Predict.”
Truth Social announced an “exclusive arrangement” that sees the company partnering with Crypto.com to make the prediction market happen.
“We are thrilled to become the world’s first publicly traded social media platform to offer our users access to prediction markets,” said Trump Media Chairman and CEO Devin Nunes in a statement. “Truth Predict will allow our loyal users to engage in prediction markets with a trusted network while harnessing our social media platform to provide totally unique ways for users to discuss and compare their predictions.”
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Polymarket and Kalshi are currently the two most popular prediction markets. These platforms allow users to place bets on nearly anything, from the results of an election or a basketball game to betting on whether a celebrity will do a specific thing before a set date. Prediction markets circumvent gambling laws and regulations by offering “contracts” with users betting against each other instead of playing against the house. Polymarket and Kalshi do not bet on outcomes and instead make money through fees on each contract sold.
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Prediction markets have become increasingly popular in recent years. In the lead-up to the 2024 presidential election, many followed what platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi were predicting based on bets being placed over traditional pollsters. Now, even news outlets are sourcing these prediction markets when looking at polling data.
However, prediction markets have gained a much stronger foothold in the U.S. since Trump won the election. For example, Polymarket was unable to even operate in the U.S. from 2022 as a result of a settlement with the Commodities and Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The regulatory agency alleged that Polymarket was running an unregistered derivatives trading market. The FBI even raided Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan’s home in 2024 to investigate whether the company was still trying to operate in the country.
Trump’s Department of Justice closed the investigation into Polymarket in July of this year, and the company has since been allowed to operate once again in the U.S.
“Prediction markets are poised to be a multi-deca-billion dollar industry,” said Crypto.com co-founder and CEO Kris Marszalek in a statement about the partnership with Truth Social.
And that really gets to the heart of why Trump Media is launching Truth Predict. As Wired points out, the Trump family already has a financial interest in the prediction market space. The President’s oldest son, Donald Trump Jr., is currently a strategic adviser at Kalshi. Trump Jr. is also on Polymarket’s advisory board as a result of an investment made by the VC firm where he’s a partner.
It’s already well established that President Trump and his family have no concerns about conflicts of interest and alleged corruption. They have already tested the waters with their various cryptocurrency projects, which have seen the Trump family earn around $1 billion in the past year alone.
If the President of the United States gets involved in essentially an unregulated gambling industry where people place bets on what will happen in politics, business, sports, and more — what can go wrong? Not much for the ultimate insider who can pull the strings in multiple scenarios like Trump.
As for everyone else, though? Just ask the hundreds of thousands of people who lost money investing in Trump’s memecoin.
