Shortly before the US military launched an attack on Venezuela and captured President Nicolás Maduro, an account on Polymarket made some very suspiciously timed investments. The prediction market had been running bets on when or if Maduro would be removed from power, with prices for “out by January 31, 2026” as low as $0.07 late Friday evening. But within 24 hours of the military action, a newly created account invested tens of thousands of dollars, racking up several hundred thousand in profits.
The account was created less than a week ago, and invested over $30,000 the day before the assault, turning a profit of over $408,000. The activity was flagged on social media, with people speculating that the person placing the bet was acting on inside information and perhaps even worked at the Pentagon. Joe Pompliano, an investor and podcaster, quickly pointed out on X that “Insider trading is not only allowed on prediction markets; it’s encouraged.”
There have been past incidents of seemingly obvious insider trading on prediction markets, but the companies often show little interest in curbing such behavior. This is partly because these companies believe the value they offer is not a level playing field for investors, but rather in delivering news and insights. When reached for comment, Kalshi, another prediction market, pointed us to a post on X stating that such insider trading was against its rules. We reached out to Polymarket for comment, but have yet to receive a response.
Update January 3rd: Added comment from Kalshi.
