Movie math is incredibly confusing. Many, many factors go into what a movie costs beyond just its production, and how much money it makes goes well beyond just its box office. That’s why, while a film like Tron: Ares may have reportedly cost about $175 million to make, and it just crossed $100 million at the worldwide box office, the losses could be much more.
Deadline has a fascinating article about those numbers in regard to Disney’s latest release and the news is not good. According to the trade, while the film’s initial budget was in the $170-$180 million range, the number was actually closer to $220 million all in, and with the box office just having eeked past $100 million, the film is likely to lose about $132.7 million.
How does Deadline get to that number? Here’s the trade’s math, but be aware, it’s very confusing, as we said.
Deadline surmises that the film will end up at about $160 million worldwide in the coming weeks. That’s just an estimate. But, if it hits that, Disney will get “$72.2 million in worldwide theatrical rentals, $37.6M in global home entertainment, close to $100M in global home television, with an extra $5 million from airlines for a total of $214.8M in revenues.”
But that number then has to go up against the film’s costs, which, on Tron: Ares, were significant: “$220 million net production cost shot with Vancouver, BC tax credits, a $102.5M global P&A spend with stunts at San Diego Comic-Con, touring light cycles, a laser light Nine Inch Nails laser-light concert at the Los Angeles premiere that closed down Hollywood Boulevard, $10.8M in other costs, and $14.2M in residuals,” according to the trade. That means everything in regard to the film costs $347.5 million but is likely to only make $214.8 million in profit. $347.5 million minus 214.8 million is 132.7 million.
Now are all those numbers exactly right? Maybe not, but certainly, they’re close. Plus, the revenue could end up more, or (more likely) less, than the $160 million Deadline is using. All of which is to say, yeah, Tron: Ares is very unlikely to turn a profit for the studio and is very likely to put an end to the franchise. At least for now.
Because, as the Deadline article also points out, while this film had many, many things going against it, including an overreliance on the Tron IP, it’s still a known IP. It’s got theme park rides, merchandise, and films that people will watch as they find a life beyond the theater. It took 30 years for Tron to get Tron: Legacy and then another 15 for Legacy to get Ares. Tron is probably dead, but with the right story, anything is possible. Just a little less so if you lose $132.7 million.
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