Modern-day meteorologists rely on a vast network of advanced technologies to predict the weather, but that wasn’t always the case. Before satellites, computer modeling, and radar systems, people made forecasts largely by observing their surroundings.
The techniques and tools they used are still effective and accessible today. In fact, they’re perfect for anyone interested in becoming a backyard meteorologist. With a few handy instruments and a solid understanding of some basic weather concepts, you’ll be making your own forecasts in no time.
Gizmodo turned to two experts in meteorology and amateur forecasting for advice on how to get started. John Huth, a Donner Professor of Science at Harvard University’s physics department, teaches a class on backyard meteorology and the science of weather. Steve Seman, an associate teaching professor at Penn State’s College of Earth and Mineral Sciences, also instructs students in meteorology.
They broke down the basics, highlighted helpful tools, and offered words of wisdom for anyone looking to learn more about the weather in their neighborhood.
Step 1: Learn the fundamental science
Weather is driven by six key variables: temperature, atmospheric pressure, cloud formation, wind, humidity, and precipitation. Changes in these variables—and interactions between them—create different scenarios and patterns. Once you understand that, you can begin thinking about how air moves around in the atmosphere.
Convergence is the inflow of air to a given area, causing it to pile up and rise. Divergence is the outflow of air from a given area, causing it to spread out and sink
© NOAA
“We usually start thinking horizontally, at the surface of the Earth, and then go into vertical [movement],” Seman said. Horizontal air movement—or wind—drives vertical air movement through convergence and divergence. Convergence is the inflow of air to a given area, causing it to pile up and rise. Divergence is the outflow of air from a given area, causing it to spread out and sink.
“Those horizontal air movements are also related to vertical air movements,” Seman explained. The first thing to understand is that both atmospheric temperature and pressure decrease with elevation. “These two [gradients] are givens associated with the way the Earth’s atmosphere operates,” Huth said.
As warm air rises, it encounters lower pressure and expands, then cools in a process called adiabatic cooling. If it cools past the dew point, moisture condenses around tiny airborne particles, forming clouds and sometimes storms. When air sinks, skies clear.
These are some of the most basic concepts in atmospheric science. While there’s much more to learn, mastering the fundamentals provides a solid foundation for understanding Earth’s complex weather system.
Step 2: Build your toolkit
A rain gauge is one of several simple instruments to add to your forecasting toolkit © Martin Hipangwa via Wikimedia Commons
One of the first things Seman and Huth teach their students is how to observe and measure weather conditions. When starting out, this may be as simple as stepping outside and asking questions: “Does it feel humid out? What kind of clouds do you see in the sky?” Huth suggested.
The senses serve as a backyard meteorologist’s first toolkit. At the beginning of Huth’s course, he asks students to spend several days observing their physiological responses to different conditions. This establishes an internal baseline that helps guide their forecasting.
Once you’ve built this foundation, there’s no shortage of instruments that can help you measure the weather phenomena you see and feel. But both Huth and Seman stress that you don’t need to go out and buy a bunch of fancy equipment. In fact, you can even make some of these tools yourself.
Here is their list of essentials for your backyard meteorology toolkit:
- Dry-bulb thermometer: For measuring air temperature
- Wet-bulb thermometer: For measuring humidity
- Barometer: For measuring air pressure
- Weather vane: For measuring wind direction
- Anemometer: For measuring wind speed
- Rain gauge: For measuring precipitation
If you’re willing to spend more money for a more high-tech setup, you can purchase a home weather station instead. These compact devices gather all the measurements listed above and typically range from $100 to over $1,000. While more expensive models may come with more advanced features and increased accuracy, you by no means have to spend that much.
“For most people, it’s not even worth it because the siting of the instrument is so important in terms of the quality of the measurements,” Seman said. Most don’t live in places that are ideal for gathering weather data using a home station, he explained.
Step 3: Practice, practice, practice
The weather can change on a dime, don’t get discouraged when you’re forecast isn’t quite right © Basile Morin via Wikimedia Commons
Full transparency—backyard meteorology isn’t the easiest hobby to pick up. Even for those with a science background, learning how to gather and interpret this type of data can be challenging and even frustrating at times.
Huth and Seman can attest to this, having dealt with plenty of discouraged students in their classes. The main piece of advice they offer is to trust the learning process and not give up.
“There is not one meteorologist in the world who knows all the answers every single time,” Seman said. “So have realistic expectations for yourself and just try to build step by step.”
Huth would agree. “Don’t be afraid to make mistakes,” he said. “Don’t beat yourself up if you aren’t precise because the weather is known to be fickle.”
Connecting with other backyard meteorologists or experts in this field can also be very helpful. “I encourage students to ask a lot of questions when [they] encounter things that just aren’t making sense,” Seman said. Getting involved in online forums—such as those hosted on the American Weather website—or local clubs are great ways to meet other weather enthusiasts.
Learning to forecast may require a greater investment of time and energy than other hobbies, but it also delivers a higher reward. Being weather savvy—observing the sky, making your own assessments, and having a clearer understanding of official forecasts from agencies like the National Weather Service—can help anyone make more informed decisions.
“The weather is applicable to pretty much everybody’s daily life in some way, from what you choose to wear to what your heating bill might be,” Seman said.
